Thailand makes the world’s tyres. Someone has to unmake them.
Thailand is the world’s second-largest tyre producer after China — and every tyre made or worn out here eventually becomes waste. Most of it is landfilled or burned. Pyrolysis closes the loop: heat without oxygen turns waste tyres back into the oil, carbon and steel they were made from.
2nd
largest tyre producer globally
after China — Thai Board of Investment
96.31m
tyres produced in Thailand per year
~600,000 t
end-of-life tyres arising each year
6.8%
of global rCB demand has supply
the gap this plant serves
How big a bite is this plant?
About seven of every hundred waste tyres in Thailand come here instead of landfill.
This plant~40,900 t/yr
Everyone else / landfill~559,000 t/yr
From world oil price to the plant’s oil price
Tyre pyrolysis oil is priced off Brent: one tonne holds ~6.7 barrels of energy, converted to baht, and Thai operators realise about 7% above that parity (cross-checked against a real Thai plant at THB 19,000/t when Brent averaged USD 82). The model walks Brent down to USD 64.76 in 2027 and escalates just 2% a year — returns lean on caution, not hope.
The pricing chain
Brent USD/bbl × 6.69 bbl/t × THB 32.5/USD × 1.067 realised ratio = TPO price. At the 2027 model price: THB 15,022 per tonne.
The other products
rCB starts at THB 20,000/t as powder and THB 35,000/t pelletised; steel wire at THB 4,500/t — each with its own path in the model.
Why conservative matters
Every return figure — the 21.2% IRR, the 6.5-year payback — is earned at the cautious end of the oil band, not the peak.
Recovered carbon black — the product this story is about
About 28% of every tyre is carbon black. Recovered carbon black — rCB — is that same material taken back out of old tyres, ready to go into new ones. The world’s tyre makers have promised their customers recycled content — Michelin 40% sustainable materials by 2030, Bridgestone 100% by 2050, Continental partnering directly with pyrolysis producers, Pirelli already building P Zero tyres with rCB. They need exactly what this plant makes, and there is nowhere near enough of it.
Installed rCB capacity6.8% of demand
Unmet demandthe gap this plant serves
The demand pull
Every major tyre maker has a public recycled-content commitment. Recovered carbon black and tyre-derived oil are the only credible routes to meeting them at scale.
The supply shortage
Installed recovered-carbon-black capacity worldwide covers just 6.8% of demand; Europe alone wants 250,000–550,000 tonnes a year. Sellers, not buyers, set the pace.
The entry ticket
ISCC PLUS chain-of-custody certification is the procurement gate the majors use — this project carries the full certification stack from day one.
The feedstock is next door
Thailand’s biggest tyre plants cluster in Rayong — beside Chonburi. Their production scrap is the cleanest feedstock there is, and the same companies are the natural buyers of the plant’s products: suppliers and customers in one relationship.
Zhongce Rubber — Rayong20
Linglong Tire — Rayong17.2
Sentury Tire — Rayong12
Continental — Rayong, by 20297.8
Double Coin — JV1.9
Million tyres per year, disclosed capacity — plus Michelin Siam and Bridgestone plants within haul distance. Production is concentrated around Rayong, next door to Chonburi.
~600,000 t/yr
end-of-life tyres arising nationally
~55% within economic haul of the site
~25,800 t/yr
manufacturer production scrap
cleaner, uniform, easier to bale
134 km
weighted average haul to site
nine modelled sources, none above 15% of volume
~17 kg
average Thai tyre when new
14.99 kg at end of life
Three products, three markets
Every tonne of tyre in becomes saleable product out — a liquid fuel market, an industrial materials market and a steel recycling market, with process gas fuelling the plant itself.
Pyrolysis oil40–45%
rCB30–35%
Steel12–15%
Process gas8–12%
Inert residue2–5%
The pyrolysis market study, in numbers
No. 2
tyre producer in the world
Thailand, after China
96.3m
tyres a year by 2033
growing 5.9% a year
~345,000 t
of tyres consumed domestically a year
the pool the plant draws on
+5%
a year growth in arisings
urbanisation and logistics
The accessible feedstock pool — and this plant’s slice
This plant needs40,920 t — 21%
Headroom149,835 t — 4.7 more plants
Two estimates, one answer
The incumbent operator’s 500,000 t/yr and the academic 600,000 t/yr estimates of Thai tyre arisings broadly agree — the pool is real and growing.
Exports don’t shrink the pool
Four fifths of Thai tyre output is exported, so the domestic waste pool follows local consumption — about 23 million tyres, 345,000 tonnes, every year.
Off-spec is the clean stream
Factory rejects and off-specification tyres are uniform, dry and easy to bale — a distinct, attractive slice of the pool the majors generate next door.
Scale is the entry ticket
28%
of a tyre is carbon black
20%
rCB substitution the majors target by 2030
15%
of a customer’s rCB need to qualify
the procurement threshold
9
strategic-supplier relationships this plant can serve
at that threshold
Plant size vs how many majors it can serve
Share of each Thai major’s 2030 rCB need this plant could cover
The gate
A tyre maker only qualifies a recovered-carbon-black supplier who can cover a meaningful share of their need — about 15%. Below that scale, the door does not open.
The barrier for small plants
An incumbent-scale plant clears the threshold for only three of the majors; a single-line pilot for one. Scale is the entry condition, not a nice-to-have.
What this size buys
11,910 tonnes of pellets a year is 24% of the five Thai majors’ combined 2030 rCB requirement — enough to be a strategic supplier to nine plants, or cover five manufacturers’ entire need.
The plant
A 29.8-rai site (47,680 m²) in Chonburi — a strategic industrial hub close to the deep-sea ports at Laem Chabang — running eight pyrolysis lines of 15 tonnes per day each.
8 × 15 t/d
pyrolysis lines — 120 t/day design throughput
79,200 t/yr
feedstock requirement
~7% of national ELT arisings
29.8 rai
site with 30-day feedstock cover
stacking, access and green-area compliant
120 t/day
design capacity
Process
Feed preparation
→Pyrolysis reactor
→Vapour condensation
→Gas cleaning
→Carbon black recovery
Shredded tyres are heated in an inert, oxygen-free environment; vapours condense to oil, gases are cleaned and reused as process fuel, and carbon black is collected and classified. Recovered energy is reused within the process.
What one tonne of old tyres becomes
Nothing exotic: a tyre is mostly oil, carbon and steel that were baked together. The plant simply takes them apart again — and almost every kilogram finds a buyer or fuels the process.
Oil40–45%
Carbon black30–35%
Steel12–15%
Gas (fuels the plant)8–12%
Ash2–5%
Feedstock security
Factory scrap — tyre producers90
End-of-life tyres (ELT)10
The economics
A THB 1,450 million project delivering strong margins from multiple revenue streams, on conservative 50/50 leverage.
21.2%
project IRR
the project earns about 21% a year on the money put in
12.8%
equity IRR
shareholders’ own return after the bank is paid
41%
EBITDA margin at full capacity
6.5 years
payback from financial close
when the plant has earned back everything it cost
THB 908m
revenue at full capacity, per year
THB 258m
net profit at full capacity, per year
THB 1,230m
enterprise value
THB 702.85m
equity commitment
Every 100 baht of sales, in plain terms
For every 100 baht of product the plant sells at full capacity, about 59 baht pays for the tyres, the people and the power — and about 41 baht is operating profit before finance and tax. The whole investment pays for itself in about six and a half years, then keeps earning for decades.
The 100-baht view
Stays as operating profitTHB 41
Pays for tyres, people, powerTHB 59
Where the money goes
Plant & equipmentTHB 1,014.8m — 70%
Infrastructure & siteTHB 289.9m — 20%
Pre-operations & contingencyTHB 145.0m — 10%
How it is funded
Equity50% — committed THB 702.85m
Senior debt50% — term loan
From study to steady state — a decade on one page
Where the money goes in, when the plant lights up, and when it has paid for itself.
2026 — commit
Licences secured, funding closed: THB 702.85m equity committed, matched by senior debt.
2027–28 — build
21 months of construction: civil works, eight pyrolysis lines, condensation, gas cleaning and carbon-black recovery installed.
2029–31 — ramp
Lines come on progressively; the model tracks every month for 33 months until the plant holds full capacity.
2033 — paid back
6.5 years after financial close, the whole investment has been earned back — with decades of operating life ahead.
Key risks and how they are held
| Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|
| Technology | Proven continuous pyrolysis; experienced partners; rigorous testing and performance monitoring. |
| Regulatory | Early engagement; compliance by design under the Factory Act — Type 106 recycling licence as primary, with 105 sorting where required. |
| Market | Diversified product mix; long-term offtake; certification premiums de-risk pricing. |
| Supply chain | Diversified sources; strategic partnerships with tyre producers; inventory planning with 30-day feedstock cover. |
| Financial | Conservative 50/50 leverage; fixed-price contracts; contingency; strong covenants. |
Licence path
The plant operates under the Factory Act with the Type 106 recycling licence as the primary and critical-path permit, supported by Type 105 sorting where required, environmental assessment, fire and safety compliance, waste handling and transport permits, and grid and utility approvals.
Standards
ISO 9001 qualityISO 14001 environmentISO 45001 safetyISO 50001 energyISCC PLUS chain of custodyASTM D8178 rCB characterisationEU REACH registrationThe model behind every number
A full monthly financial model underpins this report — fourteen linked sheets covering assumptions, oil price analysis, capital cost and depreciation, the operating model, operating expenses by ledger, debt and working capital, equity and dividends, certification, sensitivity, raw-material sourcing and landed cost, NRV costing, site engineering, permits and the market study. Highlights below; the complete workbook is in the Documents tab.
THB 1,450m
total project cost
21.2% / 12.8%
project / equity IRR
41%
EBITDA margin at full capacity
6.5 years
payback
THB 1,230m
enterprise value
50 / 50
debt / equity funding
Revenue and profit, year by year
What the company owns and owes
Cash, year by year
Where THB 1.45 billion goes
Process equipmentTHB 527m
Civil works & buildingsTHB 273m
Engineering, indirect & contingencyTHB 238m
Owner’s costs, pre-operations & working capitalTHB 412m
The ten largest items (THB million)
Pyrolysis plant (CIF Chonburi)129
Control & instrumentation85
Tyre shredders — 2 pre + 4 fine82
Flare stack & thermal oxidiser66
Civil works — pyrolysis plant65
Balance of plant54
Electrical system51
Warehouse48
Waste tyre bunker41
Office building41
Condensing capacity
Eight condensing units at 15 t/day each — THB 4.1m per installed unit after volume discount, THB 39m in total.
Pelletising redundancy
Two rCB pelletising lines sized so either alone covers full output — the premium product never stops for maintenance.
Contingency & insurance
10% contingency on the engineering packages plus construction all-risk insurance — surprises are budgeted, not hoped away.
What moves the return — and what doesn’t
Project IRR — rCB pellet price × oil price
| rCB THB/t \ TPO THB/t | 13,300 | 16,150 | 19,000 | 21,850 | 24,700 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21,700 | 20.2% | 23.0% | 25.7% | 28.2% | 30.5% |
| 26,350 | 24.1% | 26.7% | 29.2% | 31.5% | 33.7% |
| 31,000 | 27.7% | 30.1% | 32.4% | 34.6% | 36.7% |
| 35,650 | 31.1% | 33.3% | 35.5% | 37.6% | 39.7% |
| 40,300 | 34.2% | 36.4% | 38.4% | 40.5% | 42.5% |
Minimum debt service cover — gearing × interest rate
| gearing \ interest | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 3.13× | 2.96× | 2.81× | 2.68× | 2.55× |
| 52.5% | 2.68× | 2.54× | 2.41× | 2.29× | 2.19× |
| 60% | 2.35× | 2.22× | 2.11× | 2.01× | 1.91× |
| 67.5% | 2.09× | 1.98× | 1.88× | 1.78× | 1.70× |
| 75% | 1.88× | 1.78× | 1.69× | 1.61× | 1.53× |
Two-way grids from the model’s earlier full run, retained for reference; the utilisation analysis below is the current base case.
The current sensitivity — how full can the plant run?
98%
the feedstock ceiling
the sourcing plan supports full design utilisation
87%
utilisation that holds the 1.20× covenant
11 points of headroom below the ceiling
77%
utilisation that still covers debt 1-for-1
56%
utilisation where project IRR meets WACC
Debt cover at each utilisation level
The binding constraint is feedstock
Not price and not operating cost: at the modelled 60% collection rate the sourcing plan fills the plant to its 98% ceiling, and the covenant only comes under pressure below 87% utilisation.
BOI granted — the base
Eight-year tax holiday as directed: THB 264m of tax over the model, minimum cover 1.36× in the sensitivity run — Pass.
If BOI is refused
Tax from the first operating year takes THB 953m over the model and equity IRR steps down to 13.6% in that run — the covenant still holds at 1.21×.
Feeding the plant — nine sources, one gate price
THB 4,647
landed cost per tonne
ex-works, freight, handling and loss, at the plant gate
THB 3,700
ex-works price per tonne
the same price at every source
134 km
average haul distance
volume-weighted across nine sources
~3,414
truck trips per year
12-tonne baled loads
13%
freight share of landed cost
fuel-linked, tracks diesel
THB 190.2m
raw material cost per year
at full capacity
What a tonne costs, landed at the gate
Where the tyres come from — share of volume
Fuel-linked freight
THB 34.99 per km per trip — THB 10.66 fuel and THB 24.33 fixed. 30% of the rate moves with the diesel pump price, so the model escalates it with oil.
Truck economics
Baled whole tyres, 12 tonnes per trip, with a 1.6× round-trip factor for the empty return leg — about 3,414 trips a year at full capacity.
Loss allowance
A 1% transit-loss and moisture allowance is grossed into every landed tonne — the plant pays only for usable feed.
The ground rules of the model
8 × 15
tonnes per day per line
120 t/day designed capacity
341
production days a year
continuous operation
98%
maximum sustainable utilisation
after a 12-month ramp
105
people on site
Jan 2027
construction start
21 months to first fire
8 years
BOI corporate tax holiday
then 20% CIT
Macro
FX held flat at 32.50 THB/USD. Inflation 2.3%, wages +5% a year, utility tariffs +2%, equipment escalation +1%.
Feedstock
Waste tyres landed at THB 4,647/t at the plant gate, with a 30-day minimum stock cover.
Yields per tonne of feed
Oil 38%, carbon black 30%, steel 11%, process gas 14.4% (burned as the plant’s own fuel), sludge 6.6%.
Funding & covenant
50/50 debt-equity at 7%, one-year grace then seven-year repayment, 1.20× DSCR covenant, 3% front-end fee.
Working capital
Receivables 45 days, payables 30, inventories 15–45 days, minimum cash THB 0.5m.
Tax
20% corporate tax after the 8-year BOI holiday, VAT 7%, 10% withholding on dividends, 5-year loss carry-forward.
Ramp-up
One test month at 20%, then a straight 12-month ramp to the 98% ceiling.
Asset lives
Buildings 20 years, pyrolysis plant 15, condensing and pelletising units 10, vehicles and IT 5.
A full year at capacity
40,102 t
tyres processed a year
98% of designed capacity
120
tonnes per day
31,560 t
products sold a year
THB 22,644
revenue per tonne of feed
What the year produces (tonnes)
What each product sells for (THB/t)
Pelletising
All rCB is pelletised at 99% yield — 11,910 tonnes of pellets from 12,030 tonnes of powder.
Sold as produced
Output is sold in the period it is produced; finished goods hold only 15 days of cover.
Self-fuelled
Process gas fires the reactors — the plant buys no fuel for pyrolysis.
The cost of running a full year
THB 641m
total operating cost
including depreciation
THB 531m
cash operating cost
THB 18,127
cost per tonne sold
Where the cash goes (THB million a year)
Raw material & consumablesTHB 251m
UtilitiesTHB 106m
PayrollTHB 66m
Maintenance & technicalTHB 42m
Selling & distributionTHB 32m
AdministrationTHB 28m
Land lease & permitsTHB 6m
Driven, not guessed
Every ledger line runs off a physical driver — tonnes, kWh, m³, headcount — times a tariff.
Utilities
513 kWh and 0.67 m³ of water per tonne of feed, at estate tariffs of THB 4.20/kWh and THB 25/m³.
People
105 staff, THB 2.89m base payroll a month, plus 5% social security, one-month bonus and 8% shift allowance.
The loan, and how fast it is repaid
THB 747m
loan at start of repayment
drawn over construction
7%
interest rate
fixed in the model
1 + 7
years grace, then repayment
fully repaid by FY2036
1.20×
the covenant
never breached in the base case
Working capital
About THB 110m of net working capital — 45-day receivables against 30-day payables and 15–45 days of inventories.
Standby facility
A working-capital line from operations start tops up cash whenever the balance would fall below THB 0.5m, and repays from surplus.
Cover builds every year
Cover rises from 1.86× in the tightest year to over 3× by the final repayment — then the loan is gone.
What shareholders put in — and what comes back
THB 702.85m
paid-up capital
committed before the bank draws
THB 71.7m
legal reserve
10% of capital, full by FY31
50%
of net profit paid out
once the reserve is full, one-year lag
THB 714m
dividends paid by FY2038
the stake repaid once over, still owning it all
First cash out in FY2032
Profit first rebuilds the FY29 ramp-up loss and fills the legal reserve — then dividends flow every year.
Retained earnings climb
From a THB 92m deficit in FY29 to THB 927m retained by FY2038, after every dividend.
Equity IRR 12.8%
On the model’s base case, over the full horizon — alongside the stake being repaid once over in dividends by FY2038.
The certificates that open the premium market
12
programmes
ISO, ISCC, REACH, ASTM, T-VER
THB 15.3m
initial certification cost
THB 2.8m
running cost a year
+8–15%
price premium once ISCC PLUS is in force
pellet +15%, powder +10%, oil +8%
When each certificate arrives (months from construction start)
ISCC PLUS is the entry ticket
Chain-of-custody certification is the procurement gate the tyre majors use — certified from month 20, before first revenue at full price.
REACH opens Europe
Both products registered for the EU — THB 3.5m each, the two largest single certification costs.
Premium is earned, not assumed
The model only applies the price premiums from the month each certificate is actually in force.
How one furnace cost becomes three product costs
THB 11,688
full cost per tonne — oil
THB 31,535
full cost per tonne — pellet
incl. pelletising conversion
THB 3,329
full cost per tonne — steel
0.6%
idle capacity expense
of the production cost pool
Sharing the joint cost — by net realisable value at split-off
rCB63.2%
Pyrolysis oil34.0%
Wire steel2.8%
Variable follows value
Variable cost is shared by each product’s net realisable value at split-off — the standard joint-cost answer.
Fixed follows utilisation
Fixed cost is absorbed at achieved utilisation; the unabsorbed remainder is booked as idle capacity expense, never hidden in inventory.
Ties to the ledger
The sheet reconciles to 05 Opex to the baht — difference: nil.
Does it all fit? — the engineering check
29.8 rai
plot A18 leased
47,680 m²
68%
of the plot used
15,150 m² spare
2,565 kW
maximum power demand
vs 5,000 kW estate supply
81 m³/day
water intake
3% of the estate allocation
513
kWh per tonne of feed
2×
gas produced vs gas needed
the plant fuels itself
The site, area by area (m²)
Power
3,792 kW connected, 2,565 kW maximum demand after diversity — 2,435 kW of headroom against the estate’s initial 5 MW, before its 8 MW upgrade.
Water
81 m³/day intake against a 3,000 m³/day allocation; 60% returns to the estate treatment plant. Two hours of fire water held on site.
Heat balance
17.2 t/day of pyrolysis gas produced against 8.0 t/day the reactors need at 80% burner efficiency — the surplus is flared safely.
The licences the plant lives under
Type 106 — the primary licence
Recycling — recovery of usable material from waste. This is the critical-path permit; the estate’s utilities schedule prices it at THB 2m per 3 years.
Type 105 — likely also required
Sorting and separation of waste covers the tyre reception yard and de-rimming — to be confirmed at design stage.
Type 101 — probably not
The thermal oxidiser burns the plant’s own off-gas, not third-party waste — confirm in writing with the Department of Industrial Works.
The programme
Environmental study
Full EIA or IEE depending on scope — 9 to 12 months with ONEP and the Expert Review Committee.
Licence in hand
Form Ror Ngor 4 issues about 12 months from application; monthly waste reporting and hazardous-waste manifests follow in operation.
One question for the estate
Before signing the lease: a certified copy of the estate-level type 105/106 licence the presentation implies — it decides whether the project applies in its own name.
Permitting risk register
| Risk | If it happens | When to close it |
|---|---|---|
| Type 106 licence delayed or refused | the whole project stops | Critical — secure before financial close |
| Licensed capacity below 240 t/day | forces phasing of the lines | Design stage |
| Type 105 scope gap on the tyre yard | reception yard outside the licence | Design stage |
| BOI activity not eligible | tax holiday assumption fails | Before financial close |
| Emission limits tighten | flue gas treatment upgrade | Design stage |
The ratios, year by year
42%
EBITDA margin
steady across the whole horizon
28%
net margin at its peak
FY2036, before tax begins
18–20%
return on equity
through the loan years
0.02×
debt to equity by FY2036
effectively debt-free
6.9×
current ratio by FY2038
from 0.5 in the ramp-up year
10.9%
WACC at full capacity
returns clear it comfortably
Margins
Returns
Leverage
Liquidity
Documents
The three source documents behind this report. The financial model downloads as a workbook; the report and the presentation open in a reader and are for viewing online only.
Financial model
The full monthly model — fourteen linked sheets covering assumptions, capital cost, the operating model, opex, debt and working capital, equity, certification, sensitivity, sourcing, NRV costing, site engineering, permits and the market study.
Excel workbook · downloads to your device
⬇ Download workbook
Full report
The Financial Viability Assessment Report in full — 30 pages covering the macro case, market and competition, the project and its economics, risk, funding and the recommendation.
30 pages · read online, no download
Read the report →
Presentation
The project presentation — 19 slides walking through the opportunity, the market and feedstock position, the plant, the numbers and the ask.
19 slides · read online, no download
Open the presentation →